Asteroid 2024 YR4 Won’t Hit Earth, But Could Collide With The Moon In 2032

The asteroid 2024 YR4, first discovered in late 2024, has been ruled out as a threat to Earth but now has scientists watching another possible target: the moon.

Initially, YR4 appeared to be on a collision course with Earth by December 22, 2032, with an impact chance once estimated at 3.1 percent. Thanks to refined tracking, astronomers now know it will miss Earth — but its path could bring it into a direct collision with the moon.

The rock, roughly 200 feet in diameter, is small by cosmic standards but still capable of producing significant effects. If it hits the moon, researchers say it would leave a crater nearly a kilometer wide, the largest lunar impact in 5,000 years.

Scientists estimate there is a 4.3 percent chance of a lunar strike. If that happens, the collision would be visible as a bright flash to the naked eye on Earth, followed by a spectacular meteor shower as tiny fragments of lunar dust reach our atmosphere.

While Earth itself would not be harmed, the biggest concern would be for astronauts and infrastructure on the lunar surface as well as satellites orbiting Earth. High-speed debris could damage equipment, temporarily disrupting communications and navigation systems.

Astronomers plan to resume close monitoring of YR4 when it comes back into view in 2028. By then, they will be able to determine whether mitigation efforts — similar to NASA’s successful DART mission that redirected a small asteroid in 2022 — might be considered.

For now, the asteroid serves as a reminder that planetary defense planning may need to extend beyond Earth as humans prepare for a growing presence on the moon.

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