Trump Administration Resumes Work on Atlas 15 Flash Flood Risk Database

The Trump administration has reversed course and will proceed with developing a national flash flood risk database called Atlas 15, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The database will provide Americans with precise estimates of flash flood risk, accounting for the increasing impact of climate change on precipitation patterns. Work had been paused on Atlas 15’s second phase—designed to show how global warming amplifies flood risks—until NOAA received approval Friday morning to move forward through fiscal year 2026.

Atlas 15 will replace the outdated Atlas 14 system, which does not consider the effects of climate change. Current U.S. infrastructure relies on Atlas 14’s decades-old data, which experts say no longer reflects today’s reality of more frequent and severe rainfall events.

NOAA spokesperson Kim Doster said the agency’s approach “removes speculation” by using extensive historical data for the most accurate precipitation estimates, helping everyone from civil engineers to homeowners make better-informed decisions.

The database is being developed in two phases:

• The first phase, updating historical precipitation frequency estimates, is expected later this year.

• The second phase, adding climate change projections, is slated for release in 2026.

Atlas 15 aims to provide interactive national data showing not only the likelihood of 100-year rainfall events but also how those odds could shift with continued global warming.

A pilot version of Atlas 15, focused on Montana, was released last year. It includes projections for rainfall frequency at varying global warming thresholds, reflecting a world that has already warmed by at least 1.2 degrees Celsius.

This move follows public concern over the project’s pause, especially after recent deadly flash flood events like the July 4 incident in Texas that killed at least 130 people.

Credit: CNN Newsource

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