Experts Warn Budgeting is Key as Inflation Complicates Black Friday Shopping

Tariffs and inflation are adding an extra layer of complexity to this year’s Black Friday shopping rush, as experts urge consumers to plan carefully before hitting the stores or shopping online. While nearly 187 million people are expected to shop between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, the National Retail Federation notes that is fewer than the near-record number reported in 2024.

Economists say many shoppers are feeling the pinch of higher food and energy prices, leaving less room in their budgets for big-ticket items or impulse buys. With household costs rising, bargain hunting may take on new urgency this holiday season.

To help shoppers stay on track, financial experts are recommending what’s known as the “1 percent rule.” The idea: take one percent of your annual income and make that the maximum budget for your entire holiday season. For example, someone earning $70,000 a year would aim to spend no more than $700 total on gifts, travel, food, and hosting.

Experts also suggest creating a spending plan before shopping, rather than making purchases and adding up the cost later. Another tip: limit the number of transactions you make. Fewer “swipes” can help prevent small purchases from piling up into a surprise bill.

Research indicates some retailers increase prices ahead of Black Friday to make discounts appear better than they are, meaning shoppers may not always be getting a true deal. Still, analysts say Black Friday and Cyber Monday remain two of the best opportunities of the year to secure real savings.

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