Trump Promises Aggressive Housing Reform in 2026. Here’s What Experts Expect for Home Prices

After years of soaring prices, high mortgage rates, and limited inventory, economists say the U.S. housing market could finally see a shift in 2026. While a dramatic drop in home prices is unlikely, many experts believe conditions may begin to ease as incomes rise and inventory slowly improves.

Some real estate firms are already calling 2026 a turning point. Redfin has labeled it “The Great Housing Reset,” while Compass describes the coming year as the start of a new era after prolonged stagnation in home sales. Even a modest increase in activity would mark a meaningful change following years of historically low transaction volumes.

Home prices surged nearly 55% nationwide between early 2020 and the third quarter of 2025, according to the National Association of Homebuilders. Many homeowners have been reluctant to sell, unwilling to give up ultra-low mortgage rates locked in years ago. But as rates remain above 6%, more sellers may decide to list their homes next year, gradually boosting inventory.

Experts do not expect a major nationwide price correction. Compass chief economist Mike Simonsen predicts home prices will remain mostly flat in 2026, rising by about half a percent. Some states, including Florida, Texas, and California, already saw average home prices dip slightly in 2025, offering early signs of stabilization.

Mortgage rates have eased in recent months, with the average 30-year fixed rate hovering just above 6%. Rates are expected to stay elevated next year, though economic factors such as inflation or labor market weakness could influence future declines. Analysts say buyer confidence will play a critical role in determining how much activity returns to the market.

Renters may see less relief ahead. After rents flattened in 2025 for the first time in several years, Redfin projects rental prices could rise by 2% to 3% by the end of 2026 as demand remains strong and fewer new apartment buildings come online.

The Trump administration has signaled that housing affordability will be a major priority in 2026. President Donald Trump has teased what he called the most aggressive housing reform plans in U.S. history, with officials pointing to regulatory changes that could speed up home construction and reward states that reduce barriers to building. However, economists caution that meaningful supply increases take time, and federal influence over housing may be limited in the near term.

For now, experts say 2026 is shaping up to be a year of stabilization rather than transformation, offering cautious optimism for buyers and renters still navigating a challenging housing market.

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