Why Extreme Winter Storms Can Still Happen — and May Be More Likely — in a Warming Climate

A brutal winter storm spreading frigid temperatures, heavy snow, and dangerous ice across large parts of the United States may appear to contradict the idea of a warming planet. But climate scientists say these events are still possible — and under certain conditions, climate change may actually increase their severity.

While overall global temperatures are rising, cold weather has not disappeared. Winters in the United States are warming faster than any other season, and cold extremes are becoming less frequent. However, when Arctic air breaks southward, the impacts can still be intense and long-lasting.

Experts at Climate Central note that many regions, especially in the Midwest and Northeast, are experiencing cold snaps that resemble winters from decades ago. Data shows that the coldest days of the year in many cities are now significantly warmer than in the 1970s, meaning severe cold events are rarer — but not gone.

Researchers point to disruptions in the polar vortex as a key factor. The polar vortex is a powerful ring of winds that usually keeps Arctic air locked in the far north. When it stretches or weakens, cold air can spill southward into the United States.

Scientists say climate change may be influencing this behavior. Loss of Arctic sea ice and changes in snowfall patterns in parts of Siberia can destabilize the polar vortex, increasing the chances of extreme winter weather farther south. Judah Cohen, a research scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, says these stretched vortex events are closely linked to severe winter outbreaks in the US, Europe, and Asia.

Researchers stress that no single storm can be directly blamed on climate change. But warming conditions may be “loading the dice,” making the atmosphere more favorable for extreme swings — including severe cold — even as average temperatures rise.

In short, climate change does not eliminate winter storms. Instead, it may be reshaping how and when the most extreme ones occur.

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