Big Oil Braces for Boom: Exxon and Chevron Profits Expected to Soar Despite Q1 Dip

ExxonMobil and Chevron, America’s two largest oil giants, reported a sharp decline in profits for the first quarter of 2026 on Friday. However, despite the slow start, industry analysts suggest that much larger profits are on the horizon as the global energy market reacts to the escalating war with Iran.

Geopolitical tensions led to a surge in crude prices following the start of hostilities on February 28. While higher oil prices typically benefit major producers, both companies saw their quarterly results dampened by financial derivative trades. These contracts dropped in value as oil prices spiked before the physical product could be delivered, creating a temporary accounting drag on their bottom lines.

The Numbers at a Glance

ExxonMobil reported a net income of $4.2 billion, a 46% decrease from the same period last year. Chevron saw a similar trend, with its $2.2 billion net profit falling 37% year-over-year. Despite the drop, both companies comfortably exceeded Wall Street’s conservative forecasts.

Analysts now anticipate a massive rebound. Consensus estimates suggest ExxonMobil’s second-quarter earnings could more than double from a year ago, while Chevron’s profits are projected to triple in the current quarter. If these forecasts hold, 2026 could become the most profitable year for the sector since 2022.

Pain at the Pump

While the oil giants prepare for a windfall, American consumers are feeling the squeeze. The average U.S. gas price stood at $4.39 on Friday, an increase of 39 cents in just the last nine days. Prices have surged 47% since the war began.

The primary driver of this volatility is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has effectively trapped 20% of the world’s oil output. While ExxonMobil and Chevron produce the vast majority of their oil in the United States or outside the Middle East, the maritime blockade has roiled global futures markets, keeping prices at the pump elevated across the nation and here in the Coachella Valley.

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