California Democrats Shift Strategy to Prevent GOP Lockout in 2026 Governor’s Race

SACRAMENTO, CA — As mail-in ballots arrive in mailboxes this week, California’s Democratic establishment is executing a high-stakes strategy shift. Fearing a scenario where two Republicans advance to the general election, top leaders—including Governor Gavin Newsom and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi—are pivoting away from individual endorsements and toward a "behind-the-scenes" spending operation aimed at boosting Democratic turnout and tamping down GOP rivals.

The state’s “top two” primary system sends the two highest vote-getters to the November ballot, regardless of party. With a fractured field of Democrats, party leaders have long feared that Republicans Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco could lock Democrats out of the general election entirely.

The Current Polling Landscape

Recent tracking surveys show a highly fluid and competitive race. According to a California Democratic Party poll released earlier this week, the field is tightening as undecided voters drop from 24% in March to 14% today:

• Steve Hilton (R): 18%

• Xavier Becerra (D): 18%

• Chad Bianco (R): 14%

• Tom Steyer (D): 12%

• Katie Porter (D): 8%

• Matt Mahan (D): 7%

The race was recently upended by the exit of Eric Swalwell, who dropped out last month following multiple allegations of sexual misconduct—allegations he has denied. His departure has left progressives split between Becerra, Steyer, and Porter.

The "Greater Golden State" Insurance Policy

To mitigate the risk of a Republican-only November, top Democrats are funneling resources into Greater Golden State, an independent expenditure committee described by insiders as an “insurance policy.”

Finance records show the group has already raised significant capital, including $1 million from businessman Bill Bloomfield and $250,000 from the SEIU, which recently issued a joint endorsement of Steyer and Becerra. The group’s filings even include the name “Hilton for Governor 2026,” a common tactic used by opposing organizations to sponsor messaging that can influence which Republican voters choose to back.

Establishment Neutrality

For Gov. Newsom and Nancy Pelosi, staying neutral allows them to avoid picking favorites among political allies while shielding themselves from the fallout if their choice fails.

Newsom told CNN that while he has "friends in this race" and has known many of them for decades, he has no current desire to "lean in" with an endorsement. He did, however, dismiss the "performative" label given to him by rival Antonio Villaraigosa during Tuesday’s debate, while calling San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan’s description of his term as "incomplete" a "fair point."

“Success is not a place or definition, it’s a direction,” Newsom stated. “And so that’s a word I think all of us should be associated with.”

As the June 2 primary looms, the focus remains on ensuring at least one Democrat—likely Becerra or Steyer—can overtake Sheriff Bianco to secure a spot in the general election.

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