Super El Niño Could Break Records

Scientists have been keeping a close eye on the tropical Pacific Ocean for months now, anticipating the emergence of an intense, “Super” El Niño that would be among the stronger events on record. Now it looks like this El Niño could set the benchmark for peak intensity, with potentially dire implications for the extreme weather events it influences worldwide.

El Niño is poised to rapidly strengthen in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the next few months and is forecast to reach the upper echelon of intensity by the time it peaks in late fall to early winter, forecasters warn.

It’s already being referred to colloquially as a Super El Niño. Only a handful of events have reached that level of intensity in the last few decades, with the most recent one occurring in 2015 to 2016.

But now some computer models are predicting this El Niño could be stronger than any other event, back to at least 1950. “I think it’s fair to say that, depending on model, the forecasts are close to unprecedented,” said Michael Tippett, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University, in an email.

El Niño is a periodic weather cycle that features hotter-than-normal ocean temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific, along with corresponding shifts in weather patterns across this region. The shifts that occur here then have global repercussions.

During El Niño events, tremendous amounts of heat are transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere, elevating global average temperatures and increasing the likelihood of worldwide extreme weather events.

Recent computer model projections have trended toward a more intense El Niño at its peak strength compared to previous simulations, which indicates it has an even greater chance of causing global disruption. It could create flooding in some regions and drought in others, along with heat waves and other damaging impacts.

In addition to the weather-related disasters, El Niño events can also affect agriculture. For example, El Niño has been known to depress the rice yield in India and other parts of Asia, which can lead to food price inflation.

The World Meteorological Organization, which is the United Nations’ weather arm, is urging officials around the world to prepare for El Niño-related impacts. The WMO is also seeking to mobilize UN agencies to anticipate the potential for extreme events that may require a humanitarian response.

“The consensus is definitely shifting towards an even stronger event,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist who is closely following El Niño model projections.

“The model runs have been consistently showing higher probabilities for a very strong event compared to a few months ago, and every month sees higher estimates,” he said. “Currently, the odds of seeing a record-strong El Niño event this year are quite large.”

While the newer model runs don’t guarantee that El Niño will be as intense as they depict, they do illustrate a trend — and that prediction is bolstered by what is already taking place. For example, over the past month, ocean temperatures in the region of the ocean that scientists monitor for El Niño have been running record warm for this time of year as hot water sloshes from the western Pacific to the east, reinforcing and boosting the intensity of the El Niño.

However, there’s a major wild card in play: A planet warmed by human-caused climate change. There has never been an El Niño of this projected intensity while the world was already so hot. Right now, global sea surface temperatures are at record highs, and worldwide air temperatures are tracking toward another top five warmest year.

It is possible that the planet’s warm background conditions could modify some of the typical impacts of El Niño, though exactly how is up for debate. The last El Niño to occur, in 2023 to 2024, did not bring some of the typical weather pattern shifts, known to scientists as “teleconnections,” but no two El Niños are exactly alike.

The 2023 to 2024 event was not as intense as this one is predicted to be, and stronger El Niño events are more likely to influence weather patterns on multiple continents.

Late last week, the WMO released a statement warning that El Niño is projected to rapidly intensify during the July to September period, bringing with it broad shifts in weather patterns around the globe.

“El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement. “This will intensify the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world,” she said.

For the July through September period, the UN agency issued temperature and precipitation outlooks that each closely match the typical effects from a strong El Niño, though the impacts of El Niño tend to reach their peak during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter months.

The WMO update does not address the potential tie between the record-breaking heat waves that have struck Europe and North America so far this spring and summer and El Niño, but it does show a strong likelihood of above-average temperatures globally during the July through September timeframe.