Tropical Depression Could Form as El Niño Limits Hurricanes

A tropical system in the Atlantic has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression later this week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

If it develops, the next tropical storm in the Atlantic would be named Cristobal.

The potential system is being monitored in the eastern Atlantic, marking the first time this hurricane season that a system could develop away from the U.S. coastline. Forecasters say it could become a tropical depression as soon as Thursday as it moves west across the Atlantic.

However, the system faces a major obstacle: strong wind shear associated with El Niño.

Wind shear occurs when winds change speed or direction at different levels of the atmosphere. It can prevent tropical systems from forming, weaken developing storms or tear them apart.

The Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet so far. Arthur and Bertha are the only tropical storms to have formed, and both developed near the Gulf Coast before being weakened by wind shear.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently increased its chances of a below-average 2026 hurricane season from 55% to 75%. NOAA also lowered its forecast for major hurricanes, predicting zero to two storms reaching Category 3 strength or greater.

Mid-August through mid-October is typically the busiest part of the Atlantic hurricane season, meaning there is still plenty of time for additional storms to develop.

If the 2026 season ends without a major hurricane, it would be the first Atlantic hurricane season without one since 2013.

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