Texas Senate Race: Talarico Ads Surge as Paxton Awaits GOP Support

Senate Republicans warned President Donald Trump ahead of the Texas Republican primary that if Ken Paxton defeated longtime incumbent John Cornyn, Trump's political operation would need to help finance the expensive general election campaign, according to multiple Republican sources.

More than three months later, however, MAGA Inc. had yet to make a major financial investment in the race, while Democrat James Talarico has spent heavily on television advertising.

“They keep saying they’ll spend, but they haven’t,” said one senior Republican source involved in the discussions.

The race has emerged as a closely watched contest that could help determine control of the Senate. Recent polling has shown a competitive contest between Talarico and Paxton.

Trump has begun paying more attention to the race, including a Thursday fundraiser in Houston that he described as an effort to help Paxton. A separate outside group supporting Paxton also announced an $800,000 advertising campaign.

“I’m going to help Ken Paxton and I’m going to spend a lot of time in Texas,” Trump told reporters before leaving for Houston.

The fundraiser was for the Republican National Committee rather than Paxton's campaign. A recent Supreme Court ruling gave groups such as the RNC more latitude to coordinate spending with campaigns, a development Republicans hope can benefit candidates who are financially behind.

It remains unclear how much MAGA Inc. will spend from its more than $400 million political war chest to help Paxton.

Paxton has faced years of political and legal controversies, including his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House over allegations involving bribery and corruption. The Texas Senate later acquitted him.

The limited outside spending has frustrated some Republicans, who had argued that Cornyn would have been a less expensive nominee in the general election.

MAGA Inc. has not publicly detailed its plans for the midterm elections, although the organization has begun increasing its political activity around the country. A spokesman said the group would hold events nationwide ahead of the elections.

Meanwhile, Talarico has been able to dominate the Texas airwaves.

Since June, Democrats have spent about $31.5 million on advertising in the race, compared with roughly $4.7 million by Republicans, according to AdImpact data cited by CNN.

Talarico's campaign accounts for most of the Democratic spending. His advertisements have introduced voters to the first-term statewide candidate and focused heavily on cost-of-living concerns.

This week, Talarico launched his first major negative television advertisement against Paxton, attacking him over allegations of corruption. The Texas Tribune reported the ad would begin airing Saturday as part of a statewide campaign buy.

Paxton's campaign has spent only a fraction of that amount on advertising since June and has publicly acknowledged that it is behind on television spending.

Outside support for Paxton has increased in recent days. Several pro-Paxton groups have begun airing advertisements targeting Talarico, including Lone Star Liberty PAC and Truth and Courage PAC, which is aligned with Sen. Ted Cruz.

The initial attacks focus on Talarico's opposition to a 2025 Texas bill restricting certain land purchases by people from China and other countries deemed national security threats.

The ads accuse Talarico of helping foreign interests acquire Texas property. Talarico's campaign has pushed back, arguing that Paxton has his own ties to China, including a 2019 trip there with other state attorneys general.

Another potential source of Republican support is America PAC, the super PAC funded by Elon Musk. The group has recently criticized Talarico on social media but has not said whether it plans to spend money on the Senate race.

The main super PAC supporting Talarico, Lone Star Rising PAC, has also begun airing its first general election advertisements.

Republican strategists in Texas say Paxton needs substantially more advertising to counter the moderate image Talarico has established with voters.

One longtime Republican operative said Paxton may face a particular challenge with Republicans who are unlikely to vote for Talarico but could decide not to participate in the election.

Republican strategists have also warned that Talarico's current standing could change once Republican attack advertising increases.

“The volume and the frequency matter,” one strategist said.

Sen. Tim Scott, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Republicans expect their Texas effort to be well funded.

“We know that they’re going to be fully engaged,” Scott said when asked about Trump's political organization.

But it remains unclear when the larger spending operation Republicans have been anticipating will arrive.

John Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in the Republican primary, has also been asked whether he plans to campaign for Paxton.

“No,” Cornyn said.