Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win? Who Should Win?

Predicting the winners of the 93^rd Academy Awards!  This year, like the past, my heart and mind argue with each category.  My heart (should win) and mind (will win) rarely agree but there are some categories with clear cut winners and frontrunners where both my mind and heart find a common ground.

So who will win and who should win?  Take a look!

First, the major categories (video above) that aired on NBC Palm Springs:

And here’s the complete prediction in every category:

Best Picture

“The Father” David Parfitt, Jean-Louis Livi and Philippe Carcassonne, Producers
“Judas and the Black Messiah” Shaka King, Charles D. King and Ryan Coogler, Producers
“Mank” Ceán Chaffin, Eric Roth and Douglas Urbanski, Producers
“Minari” Christina Oh, Producer
“Nomadland” Frances McDormand, Peter Spears, Mollye Asher, Dan Janvey and Chloé Zhao, Producers – WILL WIN
“Promising Young Woman” Ben Browning, Ashley Fox, Emerald Fennell and Josey McNamara, Producers
“Sound of Metal” Bert Hamelinck and Sacha Ben Harroche, Producers
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” Marc Platt and Stuart Besser, Producers – SHOULD WIN

Actor in a Leading Role

Riz Ahmed in “Sound of Metal”
Chadwick Boseman in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” – WILL WIN
Anthony Hopkins in “The Father” – SHOULD WIN
Gary Oldman in “Mank”
Steven Yeun in “Minari”

Actress in a Leading Role

Viola Davis in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Andra Day in “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Vanessa Kirby in “Pieces of a Woman”
Frances McDormand in “Nomadland” – WILL WIN
Carey Mulligan in “Promising Young Woman” – SHOULD WIN

Actor in a Supporting Role

Sacha Baron Cohen in “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Daniel Kaluuya in “Judas and the Black Messiah” – WILL WIN
Leslie Odom, Jr. in “One Night in Miami…”
Paul Raci in “Sound of Metal” – SHOULD WIN
Lakeith Stanfield in “Judas and the Black Messiah”

Actress in a Supporting Role

Maria Bakalova in “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” – I’D LOVE IF SHE WINS
Glenn Close in “Hillbilly Elegy”
Olivia Colman in “The Father”
Amanda Seyfried in “Mank”
Yuh-Jung Youn in “Minari” – WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN

Directing

“Another Round” Thomas Vinterberg
“Mank” David Fincher
“Minari” Lee Isaac Chung
“Nomadland” Chloé Zhao – WILL WIN
“Promising Young Woman” Emerald Fennell

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan” Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad – SHOULD WIN
“The Father” Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
“Nomadland” Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao – WILL WIN
“One Night in Miami…” Screenplay by Kemp Powers
“The White Tigers” Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani

Writing (Original Screenplay)

“Judas and the Black Messiah” Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
“Minari” Written by Lee Isaac Chung
“Promising Young Woman” Written by Emerald Fennell – WILL WIN
“Sound of Metal” Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” Written by Aaron Sorkin – SHOULD WIN

Costume Design

“Emma” Alexandra Byrne
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” Ann Roth – WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN
“Mank” Trish Summerville
“Mulan” Bina Daigeler
“Pinocchio” Massimo Cantini Parrini

Music (Original Score)

“Da 5 Bloods” Terence Blanchard
“Mank” Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
“Minari” Emile Mosseri
“News of the World” James Newton Howard
“Soul” Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste – WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN

Music (Original Song)

“Fight For You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
“Hear My Voice” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
“Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga”
Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson – SHOULD WIN
“Io Sì (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)”
Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
“Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami…” – WILL WIN
Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth

Documentary Feature

“Collective” Alexander Nanau and Bianca Oana
“Crip Camp” Nicole Newnham, Jim LeBrecht and Sara Bolder
“The Mole Agent” Maite Alberdi and Marcela Santibáñez
“My Octopus Teacher” Pippa Ehrlich, James Reed and Craig Foster – WILL WIN
“Time” Garrett Bradley, Lauren Domino and Kellen Quinn – SHOULD WIN

Documentary Short Subject

“Colette” Anthony Giacchino and Alice Doyard – SHOULD WIN
“A Concerto Is a Conversation” Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers – WILL WIN
“Do Not Split” Anders Hammer and Charlotte Cook
“Hunger Ward” Skye Fitzgerald and Michael Scheuerman
“A Love Song for Latasha” Sophia Nahli Allison and Janice Duncan

Animated Feature Film

“Onward” Dan Scanlon and Kori Rae
“Over the Moon” Glen Keane, Gennie Rim and Peilin Chou
“A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon” Richard Phelan, Will Becher and Paul Kewley
“Soul” Pete Docter and Dana Murray – WILL WIN
“Wolfwalkers” Tomm Moore, Ross Stewart, Paul Young and Stéphan Roelants – SHOULD WIN

Animated Short Film

“Burrow” Madeline Sharafian and Michael Capbarat
“Genius Loci” Adrien Mérigeau and Amaury Ovise
“If Anything Happens I Love You” Will McCormack and Michael Govier – WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN
“Opera” Erick Oh
“Yes-People” Gísli Darri Halldórsson and Arnar Gunnarsson

Live Action Short Film

“Feeling Through” Doug Roland and Susan Ruzenski
“The Letter Room” Elvira Lind and Sofia Sondervan
“The Present” Farah Nabulsi
“Two Distant Strangers” Travon Free and Martin Desmond Roe – WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN
“White Eye” Tomer Shushan and Shira Hochman

International Feature Film

“Another Round” Denmark – WILL WIN
“Better Days” Hong Kong
“Collective” Romania
“The Man Who Sold His Skin” Tunisia
“Quo Vadis, Aida?” Bosnia and Herzegovina – SHOULD WIN

Cinematography

“Judas and the Black Messiah” Sean Bobbitt
“Mank” Erik Messerschmidt
“News of the World” Dariusz Wolski
“Nomadland” Joshua James Richards – WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” Phedon Papamichael

Film Editing

“The Father” Yorgos Lamprinos
“Nomadland” Chloé Zhao
“Promising Young Woman” Frédéric Thoraval
“Sound of Metal” Mikkel E. G. Nielsen – WILL WIN
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” Alan Baumgarten – SHOULD WIN

Production Design

“The Father” Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton – SHOULD WIN
“Mank” Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale – WILL WIN
“News of the World” Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
“Tenet” Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

Makeup and Hairstyling

“Emma” Marese Langan, Laura Allen and Claudia Stolze
“Hillbilly Elegy” Eryn Krueger Mekash, Matthew Mungle and Patricia Dehaney
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal and Jamika Wilson – WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN
“Mank” Gigi Williams, Kimberley Spiteri and Colleen LaBaff
“Pinocchio” Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli and Francesco Pegoretti

Sound

“Greyhound” Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders and David Wyman
“Mank” Ren Klyce, Jeremy Molod, David Parker, Nathan Nance and Drew Kunin
“News of the World” Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller and John Pritchett
“Soul” Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott and David Parker
“Sound of Metal” Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortés and Phillip Bladh – WILL WIN AND SHOULD WIN

Visual Effects

“Love and Monsters” Matt Sloan, Genevieve Camilleri, Matt Everitt and Brian Cox
“The Midnight Sky” Matthew Kasmir, Christopher Lawrence, Max Solomon and David Watkins – SHOULD WIN
“Mulan” Sean Faden, Anders Langlands, Seth Maury and Steve Ingram
“The One and Only Ivan” Nick Davis, Greg Fisher, Ben Jones and Santiago Colomo Martinez
“Tenet” Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley and Scott Fisher – WILL WIN