New Interactive Tool “TWINS” Offers Fresh Look at California’s 2026 Governor’s Race

As California’s 2026 gubernatorial primary approaches, a new digital tool is giving voters a different way to understand how the race could unfold—by letting them explore the possibilities themselves.

The tool, called “TWINS,” was developed by political data analyst Paul Mitchell. It is designed to simulate a range of potential outcomes in California’s top-two primary system, where the two highest vote-getters—regardless of party—advance to the general election.

Mitchell, who previously worked on the state’s district maps under Proposition 50, says the goal is to make complex polling data more accessible and interactive for voters.

Unlike traditional polling snapshots, TWINS goes a step further. The platform incorporates not only polling data, but also campaign fundraising, betting market trends, and an element of randomness meant to reflect the unpredictable nature of elections.

One of the tool’s key features is its interactivity. Users can adjust variables themselves—such as removing lower-polling candidates—to see how the race might shift. In one example, eliminating candidates with weaker polling numbers resulted in Democrat Tom Steyer and Republican Steve Hilton emerging as the top two contenders likely to advance past the primary.

The model also adapts in real time as the race evolves. When candidates exit the race—such as former Democratic frontrunner Eric Swalwell—the tool updates to reflect the latest polling landscape and recalculates potential outcomes.

Beyond informing voters, polling data plays a significant role behind the scenes in campaigns. A candidate’s polling performance can determine debate participation and media visibility. For example, an upcoming gubernatorial debate airing April 22 on NBC Palm Springs will only include candidates polling above 5 percent.

Still, Mitchell emphasizes that TWINS is not meant to predict winners.

Ultimately, the goal is to demystify the numbers and give voters a clearer, more hands-on way to engage with the electoral process—at a time when every percentage point can shape the outcome.