Manny the Movie Guy
Manny the Movie Guy's Utterly Fearless Oscar Predictions in All Categories
Here you go, my yearly Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards and they’re utterly fearless I might add. Some based on feels, but most, based on the film’s performance during award season. And as always, I have the Will Win and the May Win. “Will” is what my mind says but my heart insists the “May” ones. So without further adieu, here’s my utterly fearless Oscars 2026 predictions.
Best Picture
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
***One Battle After Another – WILL WIN
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners – MAY WIN
Train Dreams
Directing
Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
***Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another – WILL WIN
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Ryan Coogler, Sinners -- MAY WIN
Actor in a Leading Role
Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme – MAY WIN
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
*** Michael B. Jordan, Sinners – WILL WIN
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Actress in a Leading Role
*** Jessie Buckley, Hamnet – WILL WIN
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You -- MAY WIN
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Actress in a Supporting Role
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
*** Amy Madigan, Weapons – WILL WIN
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another – MAY WIN
Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners – MAY WIN
*** Sean Penn, One Battle After Another – WILL WIN
Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value
Makeup and Hairstyling
*** Frankenstein – WILL WIN
Kokuho
Sinners – MAY WIN
The Smashing Machine
The Ugly Stepsister
Music (Original Score)
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet – MAY WIN
One Battle After Another
*** Sinners – WILL WIN
Live Action Short Film
Butcher’s Stain
A Friend of Dorothy
Jane Austen’s Period Drama
The Singers – MAY WIN
*** Two People Exchanging Saliva – WILL WIN
Animated Short Film
*** Butterfly – WILL WIN
Forevergreen
The Girl Who Cried Pearls – MAY WIN
Retirement Plan
The Three Sisters
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Hamnet – MAY WIN
*** One Battle After Another – WILL WIN
Train Dreams
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Blue Moon
It Was Just An Accident
Marty Supreme – MAY WIN
Sentimental Value
*** Sinners – WILL WIN
Casting
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle after Another – MAY WIN
The Secret Agent
*** Sinners – WILL WIN
Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
*** Frankenstein – WILL WIN
Hamnet – MAY WIN
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Music Original Song
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
*** “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters – WILL WIN
“I Lied To You” from Sinners – MAY WIN
“Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from Viva Verdi!
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Documentary Feature Film
The Alabama Solution
Come See Me in the Good Light
Cutting Through Rocks
Mr. Nobody Against Putin – MAY WIN
*** The Perfect Neighbor – WILL WIN
Documentary Short Film
*** All the Empty Rooms – WILL WIN
Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Children No More: “Were and are Gone”
The Devil is Busy – MAY WIN
Perfectly a Strangeness
International Feature Film
The Secret Agent, Brazil – MAY WIN
It Was Just an Accident, France
*** Sentimental Value, Norway – WILL WIN
Sirat, Spain
The Voice of Hind Rajab, Tunisia
Animated Feature Film
Arco
Elio
*** Kpop Demon Hunters – WILL WIN
Little Amelie or The Character of Rain
Zootopia 2 – MAY WIN
Production Design
*** Frankenstein – WILL WIN
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another – MAY WIN
Sinners
Film Editing
F1 – MAY WIN
Marty Supreme
*** One Battle After Another – WILL WIN
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Sound
*** F1 – WILL WIN
Frankenstein – MAY WIN
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Sirat
Visual Effects
*** Avatar: Fire and Ash – WILL WIN
F1 – MAY WIN
Jurassic World Rebirth
The Lost Bus
Sinners
Cinematography
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
*** One Battle After Another – WILL WIN
Sinners – MAY WIN
Train Dreams
By: Manny Dela Rosa
March 14, 2026
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